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Computing probable maximum loss in catastrophe reinsurance portfolios on multi-core and many-core architectures

机译:计算多核和多核架构上的巨灾再保险组合中可能出现的最大损失

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摘要

In the reinsurance market, the risks natural catastrophes pose to portfolios of properties must be quantified, so that they can be priced, and insurance offered. The analysis of such risks at a portfolio level requires a simulation of up to 800 000 trials with an average of 1000 catastrophic events per trial. This is sufficient to capture risk for a global multi-peril reinsurance portfolio covering a range of perils including earthquake, hurricane, tornado, hail, severe thunderstorm, wind storm, storm surge and riverine flooding, and wildfire. Such simulations are both computation and data intensive, making the application of high-performance computing techniques desirable.In this paper, we explore the design and implementation of portfolio risk analysis on both multi-core and many-core computing platforms. Given a portfolio of property catastrophe insurance treaties, key risk measures, such as probable maximum loss, are computed by taking both primary and secondary uncertainties into account. Primary uncertainty is associated with whether or not an event occurs in a simulated year, while secondary uncertainty captures the uncertainty in the level of loss due to the use of simplified physical models and limitations in the available data. A combination of fast lookup structures, multi-threading and careful hand tuning of numerical operations is required to achieve good performance. Experimental results are reported for multi-core processors and systems using NVIDIA graphics processing unit and Intel Phi many-core accelerators.
机译:在再保险市场中,必须量化自然灾害给房地产投资组合带来的风险,以便对其进行定价并提供保险。在投资组合级别上分析此类风险需要模拟多达80万次试验,每个试验平均有1000次灾难性事件。这足以捕获全球多重风险再保险投资组合的风险,该投资组合涵盖一系列风险,包括地震,飓风,龙卷风,冰雹,严重雷暴,暴风雨,风暴潮和河流洪水以及野火。这种模拟既需要计算又需要大量数据,因此需要高性能计算技术的应用。本文探讨了在多核和多核计算平台上投资组合风险分析的设计和实现。给定一系列财产巨灾保险条约,通过考虑主要和次要不确定性来计算关键风险度量(例如,可能的最大损失)。主要的不确定性与在模拟年份是否发生事件有关,而次要的不确定性则是由于使用简化的物理模型和可用数据的局限性造成的损失水平的不确定性。为了获得良好的性能,需要将快速查找结构,多线程和仔细的数字操作手动调整相结合。报告了使用NVIDIA图形处理单元和Intel Phi多核加速器的多核处理器和系统的实验结果。

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